I am really upset because of Arash's Sentence; 14 years only for writing some article and comments in his web log. I am really sad about him, about myself and about our destiny. I am worried about the coming future and the result of or file. I don't know which direction it is going....

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Go back to normal life! Can I?

During the last two months ago, I have been trying to go back to the normal life. But it is so hard to start again. The apprehensively feeling that comes with me everywhere doesn’t let me move around freely. I can not turn off the lights and sleep at night. Silence makes me worried. Every firmly set voice, make me anxiety. After releasing from the jail I am trying to be optimist about life. But I remember my life in a grave….every night I start up out of my dream by a woeful memory….I try to be optimist about the future. But I feel really unsafe. I have started to write again. Because, it is my life. My life is writing. It’s not something like hobby. Many well known journalists have left the country during the last years because of all accrued pressures that have been over their endurance.

I think no one can forget and leave the psychological effects of the jail. I am surprised that how people must suffer because of their thinking method? At the beginning of third millennium how we can wall around the thoughts?
There are many questions…many and many….I am trying to find answers…I am Not the first and I am not the last….But we can try to increase the expenses by a public consciousness process for the society to avoid this horrible performances

Celestial view in white house and Iranian options
Omid Memarian*

Thomas Freedman, the famous new liberal colonist of New York Times, has come up with some rationales for USA not attacking Iran. Of course as a new entirety he illustrates diverse views existed in USA. Many are not after another war in USA. Logistically it is a big challenge for USA to start war with Iran. This is not a joke, keeping more that hundreds of thousands soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq - with no substance – with enough equipments and so on, however when it comes to Iran this is outside USA abilities and the residences of white house, knowing it that if any governments take more commitment than it’s abilities, it is doomed to be trampled. Additionally tolerating heavy expenses of war again would cause many internal tribulations. Freemanson Is aware that Bush’s team has already decided. He considers that increase in Petrol price after attacking the Iran would consequences in “Bush’s War spreading out club and co”, hindrance. Freedman Looks at the issue from an economist point of view who is trying to justify the war. But the debates influencing/ruling bush are with same level of economic perceptive ?

I believe that a kind of celestial view is governing men in the white house. “God willing resulted in the expansion of democracy”. They do not talk about the results of researches of scholar’s rooms and think tanks. They say God has given us these responsibilities. This is the hardest part of the affair that consequences in diverse and possible analyses that may result in intricacy .The white house men
By referring and bringing evidence to Bible on different occasions talk about human rights and their comments. Talking about “commitment” would further complicate the whole debate. American People based within this observation would relate more to democrats’ statistics and figures. Therefore if this approach is used in decision making process by new conservatists and political people, the economic analysis would be questioned and scrutinized. The Iranian political foreign affairs need to take this issue to consideration when analyzing the whole subject matter.

If USA at all succeeds in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran belt project, they may increase their distance from Europe, and may become more polarized in their approach in today’s world. Consequently to play such role they would look for mesmerizing situations. What does this mean? This means that Americans do not mind to play major roles in all events. So what has to be done? USA is not going to stay aside and observe what Europe is going to do with Iran. However the assumption of Mr. Freedman that USA’s policy of “stick and carrot”, in which that she will play a role of stick and is in some way parallel with Europe, seems to be remote from intelligence. The USA is eager to promote its own plan. Therefore events that have taken place so far must be taken to consideration by Iranians.

Conversely clause 3 could only work when America in Iraq would be able to establish relative democracy and security. Nonetheless if necessary they would create a subsidized democracy and in relation to this mechanism of “spread seed, and look at the future”. The election in Iraq would indicate that America is rather hasty to sort out Iraq project. The contradiction is that this would be only possible with Iran’s co-operation. Why? Because Iran has influence in Iraq that could up set America’s game. Meanwhile Iran has tried its utmost for a calm election taking place in Iraq. Americans are aware of Iran’s role with regard to the calmness of the election. But this is not the end of the matter. It is after the election that it will be appear how power structure had been divided between Kurds, Sonnies, and Shiites, and which direction is going to, knowing the fact that Sonnies have not recognized the legitimacy of the election and Kurds are waiting to see. No doubt until there will be no unity, the quandary and crisis will expand and progress rapidly in Iraq. America is waiting patiently to see what is going to happen in Iraq and what would be the consequences of this game. So what ever they about any talk about another war is just a political empty bluff. American administration knows perfectly that getting involved with Iran right now is going to in danger it’s project in the area….
So there are two options for Iran at this period. One is to make longer the time of this phase and increase the expenses for Americans. And the second is to get concession from US which are useful and low-risk way for Iran. But consider that we can study these options with the other mentioned facts together

Iraq project has strengthened the Shiites there. If the one individuals-one vote establish establishes and go successfully ahead Shiites will not be loser. Everything that happens for Iraq like disintegration or anything else, Shiites will not be a loser. (More that 60% of Iraq population belongs to Shiites.) Iran can be the biggest winner in Iraq. Consider that because of a kind of Iranian Islam-style that is strongly a political Islam; Americans can not leap before looking. However, they have set up an intelligent relationship with US. Entering to another war will make the other areas insecure and risky. Americans can not look at Iran as an independent variation. To be careless in this ground, it will swallow the new-conservative brothers, in two playgrounds. They will confine to the ground.

Now, Iranian official’s options are restricted to negotiating with Europeans. Whereas, Iranians have to put their apples in several baskets. However the weak and powerless diplomacy system doesn’t let them to analyze several options concurrently. They are not able to involve in huge plays. So Iran has to work on national convergence, decreasing international challenges, pushing forward the human right discourse and also obtain a gathering between international players. Any serious changes in human rights cases will postpone the danger. It brings time for Iranians. Iranian can solve their problem in the nuclear talks diplomatically.

But for improving the human rights situation, they need serious change in policies. I believe that the exact time has arrived and also some of the judiciary officials have talked about the essential changes. Any changes in this arena will increase the coefficient of protection of national profits. The obstinacy of some in touch officials will have inconceivable costs for the country. Improving the human rights issues is the golden key against the Americans threats. Iran is not in a situation for reproaching Americans about what they have done cruelly in the world. US are one of the biggest violator of human rights all over the world. Ok! But we are not in a competition with them to violate the human rights more. Are we? We have to keep or hat firmly against the wind.

We have to be sure that the Americans are serious bout their threats. All changes in the administrational board of white house, the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan and the other facts show that Iran has to draft a multilateral plan for threats. Iran can not close the eyes and only say mottos in the streets by the regime fans. We need practicable actions. Iran has to use all the possible ways. You understand what I mean….

Days pass rapidly. And eyes are looking to the Iranian politicians in the big play that has started….

*Omid Memarian is a 30-year-old journalist living in Tehran
(http://peaceiran.blogspot.com/

War threats; Different Approaches about Different Aspects

During the last days some of the readers have criticized me because of my opinions about the American threats and what I have written about it. Two month ago I was in the jail and one of my charges was propaganda against the regime by writing articles and comments and journalistic activities. I close my eyes to talk about it. But about two months after releasing the reaction of me is to be an opponent against the war. Why?

Because I really believe that the process of democratization that has begun about 100 years ago in Iran do not need a foreign attack to go forward. If it happens, I think that in the parallel way fundamentalism grows faster, Ethnical movements and tendency to disintegration appear evidently and settlement of accounts causes many violations. Generally, the idea of war is an inaccurate plan for promoting democracy in Iran with unanticipated result.

Look at the American experiment in Iraq. Look at the result of election and look for the result. The process of starting threats, isolating the regime, economical boycott, empowering the fundamentalism and its side effects and so on, and at the end going toward war is a good perspective to look at. Now, Look at the Iraq. What do you observe?
It is good to be highlighted that because of many reason the war in Iran destroy many things. However, many people mention the experiment of Afghanistan and Iraq and believe that in some cases it is indubitable that democracy can be injected by foreign forces. I don’t think so. Iran has many differences…..
We can talk about it more.

At the end let me draw your attention to this point that I live in Iran and there are some different criteria about thinking about things here and outside. I respect any other idea. But I expect the same approach. It is a very complicated theme and discussing about this multilateral phenomenon is strongly complex. In some part you are correct and in some aspects it is me. But the main subject is the resultant. It is really so complicated to talk about resultant…what’s your idea?

The Importance of Iraq Destiny


Iranian intellectuals and scholars are traditionally against the United States policies especially in some arenas like obstructing in the process of liberalization and democratization. They mention many examples of US interfere in some countries which have strengthened this thought.

But let me tell you in some cases the basis of this thought is going to stop working. During the last years, the experience of Afghanistan and Iraq have been changed many images. When we compare the social and political atmosphere in Afghanistan before and after the US attack, honestly we can not think over the things that have happened there during the last 3 years. Indeed, the political and social status is not comparable with the Taliban period. So what was the result of war? What did the people achieve? These are questions that we have to answer.

Little by little, the society is put to rights and the afghan people are hopeful about the future. They have passed a particular constitutional law and beside they are serious for structural reform little by little. Iranians actually feel the differences. The attitudes with afghan people have changed intensely. Afghans’ self confidence has grown up rapidly and the attitudes with them have changed strongly. They are going to acquire their national proud again and I can imagine what they feel. However, there is not a similar situation in Iraq. Iraq is more complicated and different in compare with Afghanistan.

But, let me tell you that the result of US policies in the Middle East is powerfully related to Iraq destiny. Iraq experiment toward democracy is the big test for the US doctrine about Democracy in the Middle East. Iran is watching the Iraq model carefully. If the interior political spheres close by the hardliner, be sure that people look out of the borders. Because, the experiment of US in Afghanistan and Iraq, can show them the exact direction. They hate a second war. But when there is nothing to lose, there is no difference for them to choose. So it seems that the atmosphere for any action in Iran depends on the destiny of Iraq and also the attitudes of Iranians officials in the country. Human rights are one of the most important weak points to deal with.

That’s a warning for the Iranians officials. I think that there is no play. At this time threats are very serious. And there is no way for decreasing the threats unless opening the political and social sphere for people’s real participation. I believe the exact and touchable actions in this way; can decrease the amount of hazard.